3 Trends I’m Watching in Pharma Business Development

1. New indications and therapeutic areas

Previously we’ve seen the biggest number of deals in oncology, followed by immunology. However, we’re now seeing a rise in interest in neuroscience programs for partnership. Neuroscience is becoming more important because for the first time in 20 years we’re seeing some real innovation here, especially in neuropsychology. For years there was very little development in this space, now we’re seeing launches of new medicines for Alzheimer’s and schizophrenia. These medicines also have the potential to treat other types of CNS disorders and the companies that are developing them are generating a lot of interest. The promise to patients in this space is encouraging.

2. Substantial changes in investment split

In the biotech world, deal making and private capital raising slowed in the first half of 2024, partly due to election-year caution and also following a reasonably active 2023. For example, 2023 saw multiple deals exceeding $10 billion and an unusually high 23 M&A transactions, compared to the typical 10-15.

Deals this year have also differed in their focus. Half of the transactions have been earlier in development, with a much smaller number in late phase development or near launch. 

2025 is shaping up to be a busier year as several key innovative medicines go off patent. So after a relatively slow 2024, 2025 will likely see a spurt in investment. There’s a lot of pent-up firepower and demand out there, which will potentially make it a much more competitive period.

3. Building relationships in competitive business landscapes

The other big trend we’re seeing now is bidding intensity. There's a lot of competition for transactions at all stages and sizes, alongside a scarcity of quality assets and quality opportunities. That scarcity and demand will create competition.

Looking at the data, the initial bidders are usually the winners. The mergers and acquisitions that are taking place are mostly initiated by partnership discussions, which tells us we need to be engaging with companies directly and start dialog early. We can't swoop in and expect to transact, the relationship is going to matter.

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